Istanbul faces heightened earthquake risks due to poor urban planning, weak soil, and unsafe buildings, says ITÜ disaster expert Professor Mikdat Kadıoğlu.
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| ITU’s Prof. Mikdat Kadıoğlu urges better building safety and realistic preparedness as Istanbul’s outdated infrastructure and poor planning increase quake dangers. Image: ChicHue |
Istanbul, Turkiye — June 2, 2025:
Istanbul's vulnerability to a major earthquake is being dangerously amplified by poor urban planning, outdated buildings, and neglected disaster preparedness, according to Professor Mikdat Kadıoğlu, director of the Disaster Management Institute at Istanbul Technical University (ITÜ). Speaking at the “Earthquake Preparedness and Basic Disaster Awareness” event hosted by Esenler Municipality, Kadıoğlu warned that relying on post-quake gathering areas offers a false sense of security if the buildings themselves are unsafe.
“In a city as vast as Istanbul, it’s unrealistic to provide enough gathering spaces. People will naturally want to stay near their homes,” he said. “The focus must be on ensuring our buildings are earthquake-resistant. Without confidence in the safety of our structures, gathering areas are meaningless.”
Kadıoğlu highlighted that certain regions of Istanbul face greater seismic threats, particularly coastal districts like Zeytinburnu, Avcılar, and Beylikdüzü on the European side, where poor soil conditions increase structural risk. Similarly, neighborhoods on the Asian side built on reclaimed land, especially those near the railway line, are also at higher risk. “These risk zones have been mapped for years. Soil quality plays a crucial role in determining the impact of an earthquake,” he noted.
The timing of an earthquake also matters. Nighttime quakes tend to be less chaotic due to family members being together, whereas daytime tremors cause confusion as people are scattered across workplaces, schools, and public areas. Kadıoğlu urged residents to avoid rushing to phones or vehicles and instead rely on social media or alternative communication channels when traditional systems fail. “Traffic jams and overloaded phone lines are common after a quake. Preparedness includes knowing how to communicate efficiently,” he said.
Critiquing the superficial nature of current emergency drills, Kadıoğlu emphasized the need for structured, realistic training. He proposed school-based buddy systems where students take cover under desks alongside teachers during tremors and follow coordinated evacuation procedures only after the shaking stops and safety is confirmed.
He praised the government-backed “Half from Us” campaign, which supports families in rebuilding or retrofitting earthquake-prone buildings, but lamented that misinformation and family disagreements often prevent progress. “We must take these opportunities seriously. Structural safety is not optional—it’s a necessity,” he stressed.
Kadıoğlu also dispelled common myths about earthquake survival. “It’s dangerous to assume you’re safe because your building is on rock or was built by a reputable contractor. Complacency is a silent threat,” he warned. “Understanding quake behavior and response tactics can turn a disaster into a manageable disruption.”
His message was clear: structural resilience and behavioral awareness—not blind optimism—will determine Istanbul’s survival in the face of a future quake.